Anwar said Mahathir would not last until the year 2004 - that is, the final date to hold the Eleventh General Elections. Wishful thinking? I think not. This seems to be the same thoughts of some "strong" UMNO members I met over the weekend.

In their hearts, they had hoped that Tengku Razaleigh would meet Mahathir head-on for the Presidency of the party in the recent party elections. But this was not to be. As much as UMNO and the whole of Malaysia were hoping for a showdown, nothing happened.

What disappointment everyone felt. The anticipated battle of the year was a non-starter.

Tengku Razaleigh is the only UMNO Parliamentarian in the state of Kelantan. The rest of the seats are all opposition held. There is a joke going round that the opposition purposely let Tengku Razaleigh win that seat by fielding a candidate not of his same caliber to ensure that he would still be around to give Mahathir a run for his money. If this is true, then the opposition wasted that seat.

Anyway, whether Tengku Razaleigh takes Mahathir on or not, UMNO still has to resolve the matter of Mahathir's retirement.

UMNO realises that Mahathir wants to die in office. But the point is this is taking too long to happen. UMNO cannot afford to face the 2004 general elections with Mahathir still at the helm. This will spell doom for them.

For the opposition, especially PAS, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, this is no problem. If Mahathir wants to stay until the next elections let him. This would increase the chances of an opposition victory.

This happened in 1990 in the state of Kelantan. The people were so fed up with its UMNO Chief Minister, Mohd Yaacob, but he insisted on staying on, and the state fell to the opposition.

Then, in 1999, the same thing happened in Terengganu. Its Chief Minister, Wan Mokhtar, had overstayed his welcome. When he decided to go one more round, everyone knew the state was finished and true enough, that state too fell.

Kedah, Mahathir's home state, almost fell when the opposition won eight out of 15 Parliament seats in that state. This is another way the people are saying, "Mahathir must go". They only won one-third of the state seats though - if not they would be ruling that state as well.

This shook Mahathir and UMNO up so badly to the point the Chief Minister, Sanusi Junid, a staunch Mahathir man, had to go. It really hurt Mahathir to have to retire Sanusi as there was no man in UMNO more loyal to him than Sanusi. But they needed a scapegoat and the Chief Minister had to be it.

UMNO can see its fortunes diminishing as long as Mahathir still leads the party. The trouble is, Mahathir does not think so, and he seems to be the only man to feel this way. The talk on the lips of the UMNO men is not whether Mahathir should go or not. This is unanimous - he must go. What they need to sort out is how to allow the old man to go gracefully and with little or no loss of face.

This is easier said than done! How do you remove a person who is holding all that power and prestige in a nice way? A sacking is a sacking anyway you look at it. As long as the old man wants to stay you are stuck - unless you remove him by force.

But who in UMNO has enough courage to bell the cat? They have seen what happened to Anwar Ibrahim. And Anwar was not even trying to remove Mahathir. All Anwar did was disagree with Mahathir on who should be bailed out from the financial crisis, and who should be given a decent burial. The only problem was, those on the list of dead ducks were all Mahathir's friend and family.

This was no coincidence. Anwar did not intentionally target them for death. They had already collapsed due to self-inflicted wounds. In Malaysia, big business is procured not though know-how, but through know-who, and all those who knew the Prime Minister prospered.

This is okay when the economy is good. Badly run and over-geared companies can make it in a boom. But when the economy takes a turn for the worse, the bad companies are the first to take a fall.

This also happened to be the IMF's formula for solving the crisis. Use whatever little money the country has to save the good businesses. The bad businesses must be allowed to go - but the bad businesses are all owned by Mahathir's friends and family.

This was the main issue Anwar and Mahathir could not agree on. And Anwar was not even talking about Mahathir's retirement yet.

The rest, as they say, is now history. Malaysia took certain short-term measures to solve a long-term problem. Can these measures carry Malaysia over the long haul? Probably not. Foreign investments have been rapidly declining. Malaysia has lost its competitive edge over its ASEAN neighbours. Thailand, Indonesia, and even India and China are displacing Malaysia as the "economic miracle". The short-term measures are beginning to take its toll. Malaysia is going downhill.

UMNO realises Mahathir is now a liability, both politically and economically. With Mahathir staying until 2004, Malaysia will lose its place in the business world, and the ruling coalition its power in the political arena. But what to do with Mahathir?

UMNO cannot solve its problem in isolation. They cannot just address the Mahathir issue while ignoring the Anwar issue. Whatever plan they come up with must include the Anwar factor.

Getting rid of Mahathir, however nicely it is done, will not extricate UMNO from its problems as long as Anwar still sits in jail. This is what makes the task very difficult. Pushing Mahathir out is difficult enough. Getting Anwar out as well involves a major reversal of what has been done thus far.

UMNO realises Anwar is far from finished. With Mahathir gone it will just make Anwar stronger and UMNO weaker. If UMNO wants to save itself it must include Anwar in the formula. But how?

Mahathir's successor does not have his job cut out for him. Mahathir's legacy is going to be one of turmoil and uncertainty. UMNO only has the next one to two years to figure this one out. If they wait too long the damage will be beyond repair. But they cannot act now as long as Mahathir still believes he is God's gift to Malaysia.

It's no fun being next in line after Mahathir.

RAJA PETRA KAMARUDIN