DIRE STRAITS
By Anil Netto 

An opposition win in a bitterly fought by-election in Kedah, the northern home state of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, has galvanized the Barisan Alternatif (Alternative Front) and prompted renewed discussion about the premier's political future. 

Unlike other by-elections, this one in the rural town of Lunas, held after the incumbent was murdered three weeks earlier, was crucial for the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition. With its defeat in Lunas, the BN has lost its powerful two thirds majority in the Kedah state assembly. Many analysts are predicting that it could be the third state to fall into opposition hands after the east coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu. 

Almost immediately, a Supreme Council member of the dominant United Malays National Organization (Umno), Shahrir Samad, pinned the blame squarely on Mahathir. He was reported as saying that the BN lost the seat because of "the character of our leader, Dr Mahathir". The by-election saw the opposition, represented by a candidate from Keadilan (the National Justice Party), overturning a 4,700-vote deficit at last November's general election to win by a slim 530-vote majority out of more than 20,000 votes cast. 

Analysts say Mahathir had peeved many Chinese Malaysians, especially when, in an Independence Day speech in August, he likened the demands of a grouping of Chinese associations to those of communists. Umno youth wing members later demonstrated in front of the Chinese associations' office. 

The premier again irked the ethnic Chinese when he labeled those who rejected the government's "Vision" schools concept as extremists. Under the scheme, the government aims to house schools using different mediums of instruction in the same premises to promote integration among the various ethnic communities. But many Chinese Malaysians, including Chinese educationists, worry that this will undermine the character and identity of the Chinese schools. 

These two issues played a key role in swaying ethnic Chinese votes toward the opposition. In the last general election, held exactly a year before the Lunas by-election, the support from the Chinese had helped the ruling coalition overcome a deep split in Umno following the controversial sacking and jailing of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim. 

Indeed, the by-election was widely seen as a proxy battle between Mahathir and Anwar, whose wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail heads Keadilan. In the event, the results indicated that the ethnic Malays, who make up some 43 percent of voters in the constituency, remain deeply divided, while the ethnic Chinese, making up about a third, swung to the opposition. The ethnic Indians, however, remained fairly solidly behind the ruling coalition. 

The opposition suffered an early setback after wrangling about which party should represent the coalition in the by-election. The dispute threatened to break up the Barisan Alternatif. In last November's general election, an ethnic Indian candidate from the Democratic Action Party (DAP) represented the opposition front but this time the seat was given to an ethnic Malay from Keadilan. This was widely perceived as a slight to the Indian Malaysian community and fueled discord among coalition partners and within the DAP, which felt that it had been short-changed. 

But the DAP, which had stayed away during the early part of the campaign, returned a couple of days before polling day in a dramatic about-turn, which proved to be a turning point. 

Now that the dust has settled, the opposition will have to seriously discuss the criteria for the selection of its candidates if it wants to avoid similar bitter disputes in future polls. 

The opposition win has nonetheless capped a morale-boosting month for the "reformasi" movement, which began with a 2,000-strong demonstration at the end of October outside the Kamunting Detention Camp, where detainees under the draconian Internal Security Act are held. Then, on November 5, tens of thousands of Malaysians converged near Shah Alam, the capital of central Selangor state, calling for Mahathir's resignation. 

The next political battle will be the Sarawak state election, which is expected to be held within the next six months, and perhaps a couple of other by-elections. In Sarawak, the opposition faces an uphill task against the well-oiled ruling coalition machinery. But the win at Lunas has boosted their hopes of putting up a stronger showing. 

It is likely that the Barisan Alternatif will have to contend with the same brand of "politics of development" that was displayed in Lunas, where more than 20 million ringgit (US$5.3 million) was pumped into infrastructure projects in a frenzied last-minute attempt by the ruling coalition to win votes. 

Lunas will also be remembered for a bizarre incident: the interception of more than a dozen buses on polling day ferrying what the opposition called "phantom voters" from outside the constituency. The Barisan Nasional countered that the passengers were merely ruling coalition supporters. Amid tense scenes, the police finally escorted the buses out of the constituency after both sides had lodged police reports. The opposition has frequently complained of phantom voters being used to inflate votes for the ruling coalition, but this was probably the first time that alert supporters had intercepted suspicious buses coming into a by-election area. 

Victory was especially crucial for Keadilan, seeking to step out of the shadow of the country's largest opposition party, PAS (the Islamic Party). Keadilan's win will also strengthen the multi-ethnic face of the opposition front, until now seen in some circles as dominated by PAS with its Islamic agenda. Very likely, it will make more ethnic Chinese less hesitant about voting for the opposition. 

All said, the road ahead for Mahathir looks decidedly bumpy and questions are already being raised about how long he can survive after Lunas. The Lunas defeat comes soon after a proposal by the Umno leadership to extend the tenure of office-bearers to five years was rejected by the party. Mahathir's stature has taken a battering with the by-election defeat and it remains to be seen how much of a liability Umno will now consider him to be. 

Anwar, recently hospitalized with a slipped disc, continues to loom large over the political landscape while reformasi, it seems, just refuses to fade away. Suddenly, the stakes have edged up a couple of notches and the battle lines have been drawn once again. 

(Special to Asia Times Online)